Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4eb3…257e other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$13
politics 29% −$8
economics 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
sports 3% −$44
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 3% -9.7%
all 130 -1.0% -10.5% 7% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 121
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage116d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $349 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $155 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $179 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $289 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $304 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $299 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $632 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $494 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $147 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $151 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $286 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $105 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $109 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $171 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $298 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $170 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $512 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 7h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 7h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 9h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 19h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 30h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 30h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 13d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 13d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 16d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 18d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 19d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 20d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 382 history records