Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4E 0x4eba…ccef crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$145 (+19%) realized +$157 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$125
crypto 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 44% 44% +28.0%
≤30d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 44% 44% +28.0%
≤90d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 44% 44% +28.0%
all 9 -5.6% -14.6% 44% 44% +28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 44% +28.0%
10% -22.7% 44% +15.8%
15% -30.2% 44% +4.6%
20% -37.1% 33% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +42% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$5 · ×8.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.52 per $1 lost it wins $6.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $368 $354 −$13 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $282 +$137 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $216 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $21 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $85 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $14 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $197 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.06 · official $401.06 (match) · 26 history records