Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ebb…525f other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$231 (+1%) realized −$26 · open +$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate39%46W / 72L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$229
14 days+$175
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$800
politics 25% −$217
sports 20% −$146
world 4% −$356
tech 2% +$37
culture 1% −$27
finance 1% +$34
crypto 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.9% +3.1% 80% 50% +1.4%
≤30d 46 -3.1% -12.4% 43% 24% -11.1%
≤90d 77 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 25% -9.9%
all 118 -1.5% -10.8% 39% 18% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 18% -9.9%
10% -19.4% 8% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$20 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$2,321
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses46 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions15
Markets (closed)118 / 133
History coverage142d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $298 $392 +$94 (+32%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $302 $345 +$44 (+14%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 87¢ 89¢ $299 $306 +$8 (+3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 78¢ 100¢ $164 $210 +$46 (+28%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 82¢ 99¢ $166 $201 +$34 (+21%)
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? No 86¢ 92¢ $149 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $149 $152 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $97 $129 +$32 (+33%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $73 $79 +$6 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $96 $75 −$21 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $66 $61 −$5 (-7%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? No 88¢ 100¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+13%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $151 −$9 -6%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $278 +$60 +22%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $137 +$22 +16%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $149 +$16 +10%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $302 +$95 +32%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $110 +$34 +30%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $15 +$4 +28%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $304 −$10 -3%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $152 +$13 +9%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $303 +$4 +1%
Will Garrett Mason win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 19 $241 +$20 +8%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 18 $150 −$7 -4%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $304 +$29 +10%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $300 −$12 -4%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 16 $298 −$69 -23%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $303 −$26 -8%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $302 −$16 -5%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $304 −$20 -6%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $300 +$46 +15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $303 −$15 -5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $304 +$28 +9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 11 $302 −$15 -5%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 10 $298 +$4 +1%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $102 +$22 +22%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $300 −$75 -25%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $302 −$16 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $303 −$16 -5%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 08 $302 −$37 -12%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $304 −$18 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $298 −$298 -100%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $304 −$2 -1%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $300 +$85 +28%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $300 +$33 +11%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $607 −$49 -8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $303 −$8 -3%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $209 −$207 -99%
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 03 $154 +$10 +6%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $241 +$31 +13%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 01 $604 −$4 -1%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $605 −$37 -6%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $603 +$59 +10%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $606 +$189 +31%
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? May 30 $606 −$16 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $606 −$34 -6%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $605 −$35 -6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $610 −$38 -6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 26 $610 −$6 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 25 $610 −$44 -7%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 22 $600 −$7 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $141 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $118 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $31 11h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $39 33h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $100 33h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $25 33h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 2d
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $29 2d
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $27 2d
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $13 2d
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $18 2d
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2d
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $27 2d
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $27 2d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 86¢ $86 3d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 86¢ $41 3d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $149 3d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 86¢ $5 4d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 86¢ $5 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $282 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $151 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $156 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 4d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $286 4d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $22 4d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $143 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,321.30 · official $2,321.07 (match) · 593 history records