Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4E 0x4ebb…061a sports 868 markets active 5h ago coverage 143d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 142d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79,123 (-14%) realized −$79,253 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%458W / 400L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$648per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$1,491est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$915now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days+$744
14 days+$748
30 days+$989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$23,403
other 39% −$24,775
world 2% −$574
crypto 2% +$259
politics 1% +$449
finance 0% −$47
culture 0% −$491
economics 0% −$41
weather 0% −$150
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +28.0% +15.8% 68% 68% +4.5%
≤30d 116 +9.8% -0.6% 59% 59% -5.1%
≤90d 488 -1.4% -10.8% 54% 50% -11.1%
all 858 -5.0% -14.0% 53% 51% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 51% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 51% -25.3%
15% -29.7% 45% -32.5%
20% -36.6% 34% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$617) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$386 vs −$569 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$915
Realized−$79,253
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses458 / 400
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,491
Open positions7
Markets (closed)858 / 868
History coverage143d ⚠
Avg bet$648
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 858 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $230 $232 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $50 $200 +$150 (+300%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $155 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $145 $141 −$4 (-2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $253 +$132 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $107 +$137 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $157 +$93 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$72 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $528 −$528 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $122 +$97 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Sprea Jun 15 $51 +$79 +156%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $426 +$405 +95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$90 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $122 +$101 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$75 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $122 +$128 +105%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/ Jun 13 $51 +$193 +376%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$160 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $154 +$67 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $151 +$72 +48%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $152 +$107 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $151 +$66 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $141 +$74 +52%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $131 +$78 +59%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $131 −$131 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $107 +$102 +96%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $141 +$74 +52%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $151 +$70 +46%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $132 +$72 +55%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $131 +$78 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $112 +$127 +114%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $151 +$54 +36%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $122 +$85 +70%
Spread: Kosovo (-1.5) Jun 08 $132 +$85 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $315 +$296 +94%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $126 +$82 +65%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $141 +$68 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $161 +$52 +32%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $538 −$538 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $811 −$811 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $507 +$419 +83%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $131 +$75 +57%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $161 +$49 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $147 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $107 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $157 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $232 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Austria vs. Jor BUY 33¢ $51 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $253 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $107 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $157 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Sprea BUY 35¢ $51 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $325 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $122 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $831 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $142 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Sprea BUY 38¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $152 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $122 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $250 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 3d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 57¢ $132 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Bra BUY 22¢ $51 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $132 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $131 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $132 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $122 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $915.03 · official $915.05 (match) · 3500 history records