Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4ebb…5eca other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+10%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$86
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$126
sports 10% −$63
world 5% −$5
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +10.3% -0.2% 62% 62% +7.7%
≤30d 29 +1.3% -8.3% 59% 55% +2.0%
≤90d 29 +1.3% -8.3% 59% 55% +2.0%
all 29 +1.3% -8.3% 59% 55% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 55% +2.0%
10% -17.1% 55% -7.8%
15% -25.1% 45% -16.7%
20% -32.5% 28% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)29 / 43
History coverage16d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $36 $38 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $37 $27 −$10 (-28%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $22 −$3 (-14%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 42¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 34¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 39¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 55¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $21 +$5 +25%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $19 −$4 -19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +92%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $48 +$41 +85%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +133%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +45%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $64 +$43 +67%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$6 +35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$9 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 24m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 1h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $15 7h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 27¢ $10 7h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 65¢ $10 7h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 12h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 21h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 68¢ $30 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.57 · official $249.94 (match) · 93 history records