Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ebd…0af1 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 30% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 5% −$4
sports 5% +$2
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 24 +0.0% -9.5% 58% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -10.0%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage490d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $29 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $29 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $86 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $9 $0 +0%
Ole Miss vs. Auburn Mar 04 $8 +$1 +15%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Feb 25 $8 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Warriors Feb 25 $7 +$1 +10%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March? Feb 24 $11 −$4 -35%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 23 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $29 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $25 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $3 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $29 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 45h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $22 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $7 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $29 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $9 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $20 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $29 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $29 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $29 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.38 · official $28.38 (match) · 68 history records