Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ec3…34a7 sports 198 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (364 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23,455 (-25%) realized −$23,091 · open −$364
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%115W / 337L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day363.9pace
Fees−$1,261est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,816
7 days−$14,778
14 days−$14,596
30 days−$14,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,032
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (364 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 -60.3% -64.1% 21% 17% -28.6%
≤30d 452 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 21% -20.7%
≤90d 452 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 21% -20.7%
all 452 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 21% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover363.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.3% 21% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -61.3% 15% -28.3%
15% -65.1% 11% -35.2%
20% -68.5% 6% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late -90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$80 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2,309
Realized−$23,091
Unrealized−$364
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses115 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,261
Open positions12
Markets (closed)452 / 198
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$465
Trades / day363.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 36¢ 100¢ $307 $863 +$555 (+181%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 68¢ 69¢ $390 $396 +$6 (+2%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 63¢ 100¢ $206 $327 +$121 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 70¢ 68¢ $324 $311 −$13 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 51¢ 32¢ $332 $212 −$119 (-36%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 34¢ 30¢ $85 $76 −$9 (-10%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 69¢ 70¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Paper Rex 77¢ 100¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+30%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 40¢ 30¢ $34 $26 −$9 (-26%)
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 94¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 28¢ 9¢ $8 $2 −$5 (-68%)
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will a team from LCS (North America) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Team Vitality 5¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 53¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 73¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -269%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $424 −$424 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Incheon United FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 −$5 -1335%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$23 -366%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$59 -163%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $399 −$447 -112%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Will FC Groningen vs. NEC end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? Jun 15 $17 −$18 -106%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Antalyaspor vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 −$15 -108%
Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $246 −$246 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$12 -38%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$16 -89%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $250 −$581 -232%
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Konyaspor vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $18 −$19 -105%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $271 −$271 -100%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Anyang: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 −$8 -4361%
FC Dallas leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $129 3m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $1 3m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $3 3m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 80¢ $81 9m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $19 14m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 73¢ $94 15m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $21 16m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 51¢ $29 21m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $58 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 67¢ $83 24m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $82 26m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $57 29m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $3 31m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 77¢ $96 31m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $14 32m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $21 48m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $162 49m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $170 50m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 61¢ $38 55m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 61¢ $3 55m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 61¢ $3 55m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 61¢ $7 55m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 63¢ $22 57m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $24 59m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $16 59m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 18¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,309.15 · official $2,308.96 (match) · 3500 history records