Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ec3…d584 crypto 535 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$886 (-2%) realized −$886 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate65%426W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$597
sports 1% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 22% -38.2%
≤30d 610 -7.0% -15.8% 66% 34% -22.1%
≤90d 651 -7.9% -16.7% 65% 34% -21.9%
all 651 -7.9% -16.7% 65% 34% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 34% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 12% -29.4%
15% -31.9% 6% -36.2%
20% -38.6% 3% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$52 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$886
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses426 / 225
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)651 / 535
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 651 Trades
no open positions (149 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $145 −$141 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$19 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +778%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $277 −$277 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $180 −$144 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$45 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -823%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$41 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$60 -130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$68 +12834%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$22 -111%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$8 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$12 -306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$29 -771%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $60 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $22 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $22 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $13 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $18 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $151 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $34 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $19 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $22 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $46 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $28 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $40 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $12 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records