Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ec3…a147 politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-1%) realized −$249 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 62% −$5
politics 14% −$22
other 14% −$219
sports 11% $0
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 27 -38.2% -44.1% 11% 0% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 0% -12.5%
10% -49.5% 0% -20.9%
15% -54.3% 0% -28.5%
20% -58.8% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage657d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $302 $302 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? Yes 50¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $302 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-18? Apr 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 27 $573 $0 -0%
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? Dec 10 $290 −$145 -50%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 18 $9 $0 -0%
Oilers vs. Panthers Aug 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-04-17? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? Feb 01 $111 $0 +0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Feb 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 22 $280 −$74 -26%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Jan 22 $2 $0 -6%
Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? Nov 15 $4,925 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Nov 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El Nov 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Nov 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Nov 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Nov 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Nov 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Biden wins the Popular Vote? Nov 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election Nov 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kamala Harris drop out in August? Sep 13 $790 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $302 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $302 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $302 52d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $286 107d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $286 122d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $287 130d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $287 150d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $4 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $19 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $20 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $20 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $2 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $27 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $8 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $20 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $27 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $8 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $28 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $28 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $5 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $15 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $8 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $20 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $5 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $20 186d
Will Lourence Ilagan win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $5 186d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $102 186d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $103 211d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $103 211d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $103 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.65 · official $301.65 (match) · 105 history records