Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ec5…def4 other 29 markets active 3h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-27%) realized −$276 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$323
7 days−$331
14 days−$345
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$297
crypto 19% −$2
sports 10% −$56
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-61.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -62.1% -65.7% 9% 9% -53.1%
≤30d 25 -57.5% -61.6% 12% 8% -47.8%
≤90d 25 -57.5% -61.6% 12% 8% -47.8%
all 25 -57.5% -61.6% 12% 8% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.6% 8% -47.8%
10% -65.3% 8% -52.8%
15% -68.6% 8% -57.3%
20% -71.7% 4% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$23 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$276
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage20d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Steven Gerrard be the next manager of Manchester City FC? Yes $9 $1 −$8 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$4 -19%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 20 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $85 −$60 -70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 +$147 +276%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$6 -22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$8 +36%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $53 −$7 -13%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $107 −$14 -13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $21 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $211 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 2h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes $27 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $21 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $21 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $27 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $21 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $27 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 6d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes $10 6d
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes $21 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes $12 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $46 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $53 7d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes $107 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $93 13d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $21 19d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.59 · official $239.59 (match) · 74 history records