Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:31:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4ec5…3193 sports 17 markets active 5d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,444 (+3%) realized +$2,858 · open −$1,414
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$2,507per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$546est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5,421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$918
14 days+$1,597
30 days+$2,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$1,660
other 16% −$1,061
culture 4% −$185
finance 2% +$306
crypto 2% +$58
tech 2% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 12 -2.2% -11.6% 67% 50% -3.9%
≤90d 12 -2.2% -11.6% 67% 50% -3.9%
all 12 -2.2% -11.6% 67% 50% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 50% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 33% -13.1%
15% -27.7% 25% -21.5%
20% -34.8% 17% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,205 vs −$1,856 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$5,421
Realized+$2,858
Unrealized−$1,414
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$546
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2,507
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $5,044 $3,860 −$1,184 (-23%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $1,139 $1,099 −$40 (-4%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $361 $216 −$145 (-40%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $252 $205 −$47 (-18%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $38 $41 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,510 −$1,054 -30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $8,077 −$3,271 -40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,027 +$792 +39%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,045 −$3,041 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $11,260 +$5,656 +50%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,041 +$2,514 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,004 +$58 +6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $1,001 +$24 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,306 +$224 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $1,010 +$306 +30%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 25 $58 −$56 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $402 +$63 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $63 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $93 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $98 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $360 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $4,088 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $36 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 41¢ $453 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 60¢ $33 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 66¢ $1,970 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 79¢ $2,819 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 83¢ $3,510 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 56¢ $2,027 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,420.53 · official $5,421.89 (match) · 62 history records