Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4E 0x4ec7…ed98 sports 1612 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (259 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$326 (-7%) realized −$731 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%894W / 570L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day258.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,224
7 days−$1,018
14 days−$731
30 days−$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$327
crypto 29% +$180
other 3% +$8
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (259 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 953 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 47% -40.8%
≤30d 1464 +0.4% -9.2% 61% 52% -23.0%
≤90d 1464 +0.4% -9.2% 61% 52% -23.0%
all 1464 +0.4% -9.2% 61% 52% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover258.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 52% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -30.4%
15% -25.8% 31% -37.1%
20% -33.1% 22% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$731
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses894 / 570
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions52
Markets (closed)1464 / 1612
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day258.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 1464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners Under 53¢ 77¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+45%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 92¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+131%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 48¢ 92¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+91%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 52¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 69¢ 87¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 73¢ 81¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 78¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 81¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 78¢ 91¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners Over 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 67¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals No 61¢ 63¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-23? Yes 76¢ 42¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 42¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 80¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 95¢ 80¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Gonzalo Bueno 78¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
World Championships: Austria vs. Germany Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Mi Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Busta Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 169.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Malta Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ka Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Somerset Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $3 4m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 11m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $3 13m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $2 15m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $3 24m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $3 28m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $3 29m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 31m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 100¢ $2 36m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $3 47m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $3 51m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $3 53m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $9 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $3 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $3 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 70¢ $3 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.75 · official $134.62 (match) · 3500 history records