Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
4E 0x4ec8…cb4e crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,792 (+18%) realized +$1,792 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$366
7 days+$990
14 days+$990
30 days+$1,377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$1,716
crypto 43% −$77
other 8% −$338
world 5% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +13.9% +3.1% 57% 43% +3.0%
≤30d 29 +13.8% +3.0% 62% 48% +2.9%
≤90d 29 +13.8% +3.0% 62% 48% +2.9%
all 29 +13.8% +3.0% 62% 48% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 48% +2.9%
10% -6.9% 38% -6.9%
15% -15.9% 28% -15.9%
20% -24.1% 28% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$512) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$165 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,792
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage16d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1,101 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $445 −$303 -68%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $529 +$1,471 +278%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $683 −$443 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $242 +$23 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $158 −$158 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $402 −$402 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $713 +$500 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $704 +$57 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $407 −$5 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $364 +$43 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $242 +$123 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $135 +$105 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$120 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$27 +64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $57 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$79 +151%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $486 +$78 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $173 −$159 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 02 $161 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $610 +$173 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 02 $104 +$92 +88%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $676 −$15 -2%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $504 +$170 +34%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $512 +$88 +17%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $95 +$24 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $240 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $683 45h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 26¢ $529 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records