Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ecb…87dd sports 395 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$130 (+1%) realized +$103 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%167W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$179
other 22% +$215
world 1% −$60
crypto 1% −$66
politics 0% −$25
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -12.7% -21.0% 45% 45% -18.5%
≤30d 21 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 43% -20.7%
≤90d 71 -11.9% -20.3% 39% 39% -27.4%
all 372 -5.8% -14.8% 45% 43% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 43% -7.4%
10% -22.9% 41% -16.3%
15% -30.4% 38% -24.4%
20% -37.2% 33% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses167 / 205
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions15
Markets (closed)372 / 395
History coverage248d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 73¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-11%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 45¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $51 +$79 +155%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$26 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$39 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Tomáš Chorý: 2+ Goals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $16 −$15 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 04 $10 +$14 +140%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $20 +$11 +55%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 04 $20 +$30 +146%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $10 +$23 +226%
Will AJ Brown be traded? May 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $10 +$15 +146%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) May 02 $10 +$23 +226%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Wild (-1.5) May 01 $10 +$21 +206%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $12 +$31 +250%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $51 +$47 +93%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 24 $50 −$49 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline Apr 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $50 +$43 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 15¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 34¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $10 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $20 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $51 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $51 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 74¢ $25 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $25 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 28¢ $58 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $51 47h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 12¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 23¢ $10 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 3d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 6d
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 6d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.73 · official $768.73 · 777 history records