Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4ecc…6ee0
politics · 154 markets active 145d ago
0.5score
+$20,838 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20,838 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$20,838
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
Avg bet$1,815
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 0 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Biden finish his term? No 26¢ 0¢ $58,091 $0 −$58,091 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Rams vs. Bears Bears 36¢ 0¢ $720 $0 −$720 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2,650 $0 −$2,650 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? No 4¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Bills vs. Broncos Bills 55¢ 0¢ $274 $0 −$274 (-100%)
49ers vs. Seahawks 49ers 28¢ 0¢ $420 $0 −$420 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference? No 11¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $247 $0 −$247 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference? No 14¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $274 −$274 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $420 −$420 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 18 $720 −$720 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? Dec 10 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference? Dec 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press confer Dec 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference? Dec 10 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during Decemb Dec 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Oct 16 $3,265 −$3,265 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 13 $247 −$247 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Oct 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Apr 15 $2,650 −$2,650 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 23 $35,916 +$1,571 +4%
Will SOL flip XRP again in 2024? Jan 03 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Dec 20 $60,489 −$58,088 -96%
Trump formally nominates Matt Gaetz for AG? Nov 25 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Nov 20 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Biden resign before the election? Nov 20 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $720 −$720 -100%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Nov 20 $10,580 −$7,850 -74%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $12,772 −$12,772 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "JD" or "Vance" during her Wisconsin rally? Oct 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nikki Haley endorse Kamala Harris by tomorrow? Oct 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "Couch" during the debate? Oct 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his North Carolina Oct 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "Haitian" during the debate? Oct 24 $134 −$134 -100%
Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack? Oct 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "liar" during her Wisconsin rally? Oct 24 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "Tampon" during the debate? Oct 24 $225 −$225 -100%
Will JD Vance say "rig" or "rigged" during the debate? Oct 24 $380 −$380 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Kamala Harris" 30 or more times during the debate? Oct 24 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during her Wisconsin rall Oct 24 $494 −$494 -100%
Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points in Sept meeting? Oct 24 $291 −$291 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Oct 24 $295 −$295 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Oct 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Oct 24 $580 +$420 +72%
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 30 or more times during the debate? Oct 24 $1,025 +$1,475 +144%
Will Trump say "Border" during the X space? Sep 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" 5+ times during the X space? Sep 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Routh" during the X space? Sep 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Trump say "Milady" during the X space? Sep 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Loomer" during the X space? Sep 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Trump say "memecoin" during the X space? Sep 17 $404 −$404 -100%
Will Trump say "Rug" or "Rugged" during the X space? Sep 17 $333 −$333 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 10 or more times during the X space? Sep 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Trump say "Twitter" during the X space? Sep 17 $1,138 −$1,138 -100%
Will Trump say "Solana" during the X space? Sep 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump say "Doge" during the X space? Sep 17 $505 −$505 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 79% +$33,065
other 15% +$643
economics 2% −$3,872
crypto 2% −$4,443
world 1% −$3,910
sports 1% −$1,534
tech 0% +$136
weather 0% +$753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Bills 55¢ $274 145d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 28¢ $174 145d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 28¢ $2 145d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 28¢ $73 145d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 28¢ $12 145d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 28¢ $10 145d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Bears 36¢ $720 145d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 28¢ $150 145d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? BUY No 4¢ $86 183d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? BUY No 5¢ $0 183d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? BUY No 4¢ $9 183d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? BUY No 4¢ $0 183d
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 183d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? BUY No 4¢ $5 183d
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press confer BUY No 14¢ $70 183d
Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference? BUY Yes 17¢ $126 183d
Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during Decemb BUY No 11¢ $31 183d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? BUY No 4¢ $1 183d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? BUY No 4¢ $0 183d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? BUY No 4¢ $33 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY Yes 25¢ $247 241d
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $61 241d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY Yes 15¢ $678 422d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,972 422d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 427d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 427d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $720 427d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 427d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 427d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 427d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 154 -45.3% -50.6% 17% 16% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 16% -2.7%
10% -55.3% 14% -12.0%
15% -59.6% 11% -20.5%
20% -63.6% 11% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 950 history records