Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ecc…2174 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133 (-5%) realized −$132 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$248
14 days+$248
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$310
other 28% +$156
world 22% −$93
finance 9% +$61
crypto 6% +$58
politics 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +31.2% +18.7% 83% 83% +18.2%
≤30d 27 +3.6% -6.3% 70% 70% -11.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 68% 68% -14.2%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 68% 68% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 68% -14.2%
10% -18.3% 46% -22.4%
15% -26.2% 36% -29.9%
20% -33.4% 21% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$71 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)28 / 37
History coverage30d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Iva Jovic 73¢ 72¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Naomi Osaka 71¢ 70¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Namibia 70¢ 69¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 67¢ 66¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $64 $66 +$2 (+4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Corentin Moutet 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Brandon Nakashima 53¢ 52¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 −$37 -54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 −$49 -71%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$42 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $150 +$51 +34%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$28 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $61 +$13 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$33 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $100 +$50 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $101 −$50 -49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $100 +$11 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $100 +$11 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $101 +$19 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $97 +$13 +13%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $19 +$18 +93%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $102 +$21 +21%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 23? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $66 −$65 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper BUY Brandon Nakashima 53¢ $50 1h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 70¢ $71 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 71¢ $72 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 73¢ $74 1h
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Corentin Moutet 57¢ $58 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 67¢ $68 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $201 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 5d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 97¢ $74 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $133 21d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $150 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 28¢ $52 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 53¢ $101 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? SELL No 100¢ $51 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.01 · official $557.03 (match) · 65 history records