Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ecd…1da3 sports 346 markets active 4h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$753 (-13%) realized −$772 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%166W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$61
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$648
other 5% −$44
world 2% −$67
culture 1% −$20
crypto 1% −$6
politics 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.4% -32.5% 40% 40% -28.5%
≤30d 67 -7.7% -16.5% 51% 49% -11.3%
≤90d 286 -28.6% -35.4% 42% 41% -33.3%
all 342 -15.8% -23.8% 49% 47% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 47% -21.9%
10% -31.1% 41% -29.4%
15% -37.8% 32% -36.2%
20% -43.9% 23% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$772
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses166 / 176
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)342 / 346
History coverage243d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 51¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 56¢ 86¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+53%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+66%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 54¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$17 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $8 +$15 +186%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $10 +$5 +47%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $25 +$12 +48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $11 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $15 +$7 +48%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $8 −$8 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$17 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 04 $8 +$5 +65%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $13 +$8 +64%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $13 +$6 +44%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 +$3 +27%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $15 +$8 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +124%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $2 +$3 +140%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $10 +$14 +140%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 30 $15 +$10 +65%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 30 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $20 +$5 +26%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $5 +$12 +226%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $15 +$5 +31%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $8 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $20 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 40¢ $7 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 68¢ $10 4d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 62¢ $5 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $5 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 55¢ $10 6d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY BIG 56¢ $15 9d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 38¢ $15 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 45¢ $10 11d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 11d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 48¢ $15 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $10 11d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY FlyQuest 50¢ $10 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 34¢ $6 12d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 35¢ $2 12d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 39¢ $4 12d
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA 67¢ $10 12d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 55¢ $7 12d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 67¢ $25 12d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $10 13d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 52¢ $8 13d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 63¢ $11 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 67¢ $15 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.62 · official $86.62 (match) · 671 history records