Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4ecf…05fb weather 534 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,388 (-3%) realized −$1,388 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%235W / 298L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$19
14 days−$560
30 days−$551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$438
weather 18% −$938
world 8% −$482
sports 5% −$172
crypto 4% −$244
politics 3% +$132
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.2% -36.9% 33% 13% -22.2%
≤30d 112 -48.4% -53.3% 31% 11% -28.1%
≤90d 397 -20.1% -27.7% 41% 27% -24.2%
all 533 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 27% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 27% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 22% -20.5%
15% -37.2% 16% -28.2%
20% -43.3% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$24 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$1,388
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses235 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)533 / 534
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +162%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $118 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 21? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 07 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 12? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 2? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 10? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 10? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1? Jun 07 $24 −$16 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 5? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 2? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 29? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 4? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 3? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 30? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 29? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 2? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 5? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 29? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 6? Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings Jun 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 30? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 3? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on May 3? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 14h
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $9 35h
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 38h
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 46h
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.45 · official $10.45 (match) · 3500 history records