Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ecf…e438 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%18W / 45L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$3
other 22% +$4
politics 8% $0
sports 6% −$1
culture 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 21 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 21 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 0% -8.8%
all 63 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage273d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $10 $0 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $32 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $34 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $114 +$2 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $39 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $27 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 27 $6 $0 +4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $21 $0 +2%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 05 $5 $0 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 04 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $36 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $32 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $17 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $9 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $25 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $35 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $17 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $12 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $10 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $3 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $17 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $29 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records