trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +4.9% | -5.1% | 50% | 25% | -5.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +2.6% | -7.2% | 50% | 12% | -7.4% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +145.5% | +122.1% | 57% | 21% | -7.6% |
| all | 26 | +77.7% | +60.8% | 58% | 12% | -8.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +60.8% | 12% | -8.0% |
| 10% | +45.4% | 4% | -16.8% |
| 15% | +31.4% | 4% | -24.8% |
| 20% | +18.5% | 4% | -32.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $52 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $16 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $28 | +$4 | +14% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 27 | $70 | +$2 | +3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 27 | $62 | −$1 | -1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 25 | $4 | $0 | +13% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 24 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 24 | $51 | +$2 | +3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 23 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 20 | $13 | +$5 | +37% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 19 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 27 | $17 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | May 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | May 18 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? | Mar 13 | $4 | −$1 | -27% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? | Mar 12 | $12 | $0 | +2% |