Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ecf…75d2 crypto 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-7%) realized −$144 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%49W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$63
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$45
world 23% −$39
other 17% +$7
politics 9% −$72
tech 9% −$14
sports 6% +$54
finance 2% −$6
culture 0% −$5
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +34.9% +22.1% 32% 27% -17.3%
≤30d 174 +2.3% -7.4% 28% 22% -19.6%
≤90d 174 +2.3% -7.4% 28% 22% -19.6%
all 174 +2.3% -7.4% 28% 22% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 22% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 18% -27.3%
15% -24.4% 15% -34.4%
20% -31.8% 14% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses49 / 125
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)174 / 197
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 73¢ 98¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+52%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $10 +$3 (+37%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeting? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+105%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 25¢ 33¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+65%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 49¢ 67¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? No 13¢ 16¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+26%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 11¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 22, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? No 4¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+154%)
Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? No 16¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? No 7¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 23¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $152 −$4 -3%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $13 +$4 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 −$3 -27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$22 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$9 +59%
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -56%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +442%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $33 −$6 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -87%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 13 $0 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Collapse be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$6 +85%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nisha be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $29 51m
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $11 53m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 58m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $98 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $11 1h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $11 1h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $18 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 23¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $67 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $20 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $35 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $17 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 63¢ $17 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $10 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $15 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 9¢ $3 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 4h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY No 5¢ $0 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 49¢ $22 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.31 · official $168.22 (match) · 509 history records