Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4ed2…0dda sports 592 markets active 0h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$616 (+2%) realized +$594 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%284W / 289L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$342est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$364
7 days+$1,010
14 days+$992
30 days+$1,017
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,894
other 5% −$709
world 3% +$191
tech 3% −$880
culture 0% −$31
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 +5.5% -4.5% 56% 52% +0.4%
≤30d 338 +2.5% -7.3% 52% 49% -3.5%
≤90d 533 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 47% -9.7%
all 573 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 47% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 47% -8.3%
10% -15.6% 43% -17.1%
15% -23.7% 40% -25.1%
20% -31.2% 38% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$46 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$1,081
Realized+$594
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses284 / 289
Est. fees paid−$342
Open positions19
Markets (closed)573 / 592
History coverage546d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 573 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ 88¢ $244 $270 +$26 (+11%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Daniel Altmaier 21¢ 100¢ $21 $102 +$80 (+376%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ 90¢ $64 $93 +$28 (+44%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Kansas City Royals 61¢ 60¢ $62 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 59¢ 56¢ $60 $57 −$4 (-6%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 56¢ 55¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 46¢ 48¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+3%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 46¢ 46¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $47 $47 −$1 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 36¢ 44¢ $37 $46 +$9 (+24%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ 40¢ $42 $42 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 39¢ 38¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Miami Marlins 39¢ 38¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 38¢ 38¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Under 46¢ 22¢ $47 $23 −$24 (-51%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Dayana Yastremska 48¢ 16¢ $49 $17 −$32 (-66%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 43¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 194 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $36 +$19 +55%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 −$4 -8%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $47 −$4 -8%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $51 −$3 -6%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$3 -4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $48 −$3 -5%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 −$3 -5%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $67 −$2 -4%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $52 −$3 -6%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 −$4 -8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $48 −$3 -5%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 17 $68 −$2 -4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $56 −$3 -5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $48 −$3 -5%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $65 −$2 -4%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $63 +$40 +63%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $81 +$21 +26%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $62 −$61 -99%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $81 +$21 +26%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Chang Jun 17 $21 +$4 +20%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $38 +$65 +172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $89 +$12 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$64 +165%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $48 +$55 +114%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $48 +$55 +114%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $53 +$49 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $92 +$9 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$34 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$30 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 16 $48 +$55 +114%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $80 −$79 -99%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $72 +$30 +42%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $27 +$23 +85%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 16 $64 −$63 -99%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $70 +$32 +46%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 59¢ $61 25m
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $50 56m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 64¢ $36 1h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) SELL New York Mets 42¢ $42 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 43¢ $43 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $48 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $48 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 47¢ $47 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $59 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 45¢ $45 1h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $44 1h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 64¢ $65 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 48¢ $49 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 39¢ $39 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 45¢ $45 1h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $66 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 53¢ $54 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $45 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 62¢ $63 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $65 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $48 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $56 1h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 66¢ $68 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $48 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $48 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $43 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 56¢ $58 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $40 1h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 65¢ $67 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,081.16 · official $1,081.16 (match) · 1169 history records