Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ed7…9800 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$4
other 13% $0
politics 8% +$1
crypto 4% −$3
culture 3% $0
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.2% -7.6% 71% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 16 -5.2% -14.3% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 16 -5.2% -14.3% 38% 0% -8.9%
all 34 -3.1% -12.3% 44% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -9.2%
10% -20.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -28.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage392d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $34 +$2 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $22 +$2 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $33 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $34 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 27 $3 $0 -6%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 24 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $16 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $24 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $40 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 153 history records