Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4edb…9963 crypto 642 markets active 2d ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$489 (+1%) realized +$489 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%420W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day65.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$471
14 days−$50
30 days−$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -14.7% -22.8% 64% 58% -17.3%
≤30d 416 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 64% -12.2%
≤90d 642 -4.8% -13.8% 65% 61% -9.5%
all 642 -4.8% -13.8% 65% 61% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 61% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 45% -18.2%
15% -29.6% 30% -26.1%
20% -36.5% 18% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$53 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$489
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses420 / 222
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)642 / 642
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day65.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 642 Trades
no open positions (195 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$14 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $197 +$59 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$47 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$12 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $96 +$24 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$12 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $266 −$258 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $273 +$80 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $237 +$86 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $304 −$295 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $110 +$16 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $87 −$86 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $427 +$78 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $297 −$291 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $159 +$47 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$8 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $398 +$90 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$16 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $160 +$88 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $95 +$35 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$9 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$16 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $411 +$95 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $59 −$58 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$92 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $252 −$246 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $119 −$116 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $311 +$134 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $316 +$186 +59%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $6 +$4 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $150 +$23 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $14 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $19 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $39 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $48 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $29 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $29 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $13 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $17 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records