Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4E 0x4edd…ddf1 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$255 (+20%) realized +$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate85%22W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day113.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$70
sports 20% +$82
crypto 12% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +22.4% +10.7% 85% 54% +8.4%
≤30d 26 +22.4% +10.7% 85% 54% +8.4%
≤90d 26 +22.4% +10.7% 85% 54% +8.4%
all 26 +22.4% +10.7% 85% 54% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 54% +8.4%
10% ← realistic here +0.1% 27% -2.0%
15% -9.5% 23% -11.5%
20% -18.4% 12% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×14.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×77.7 per $1 lost it wins $77.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses22 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day113.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $37 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $19 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $300 +$34 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $104 +$49 +47%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $130 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $7 +$16 +235%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $33 +$25 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $64 +$31 +48%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $61 +$37 +62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $35 +$8 +22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $40 +$6 +14%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $85 +$13 +16%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $31 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $33 −$3 -9%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $55 +$3 +6%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 85¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 87¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 85¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 93¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 90¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 57¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 51¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 329 history records