Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4ee1…6a80
weather · 229 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,319 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,317 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$359
Realized−$2,317
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses199 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$293
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage60d
Avg bet$659
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 228 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? No 98¢ 97¢ $361 $359 −$2 (-1%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 69¢ 0¢ $207 $0 −$207 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 78¢ 0¢ $885 $0 −$885 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 73¢ 0¢ $182 $0 −$182 (-100%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 87¢ 0¢ $355 $0 −$355 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $355 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $348 +$6 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $105 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $243 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $346 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $340 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $217 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 16? May 18 $545 −$545 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16? May 16 $513 +$32 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16? May 16 $188 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 16? May 16 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 16? May 16 $468 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 16? May 16 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on May 15? May 16 $175 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 15? May 16 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 15? May 16 $235 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 15? May 15 $19 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 15? May 15 $449 +$33 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15? May 15 $433 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 15? May 15 $428 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 15 $385 +$42 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? May 14 $379 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? May 14 $373 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on May 14? May 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14? May 14 $361 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 14? May 14 $370 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 14? May 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? May 14 $334 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 13? May 13 $336 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13? May 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 13? May 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 13? May 13 $9 $0 +3%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 12? May 12 $363 −$355 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $357 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 12 $352 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11? May 11 $338 +$13 +4%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $357 −$355 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 10? May 10 $351 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 10? May 10 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 10? May 10 $239 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $350 −$349 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$1,506
weather 24% −$1,586
crypto 16% +$61
other 8% +$712
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $83 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $132 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $355 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $240 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $287 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 35 -1.0% -10.4% 91% 3% -12.8%
≤90d 228 +0.9% -8.7% 87% 23% -10.9%
all 228 +0.9% -8.7% 87% 23% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 23% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 9% -19.4%
15% -25.4% 5% -27.2%
20% -32.7% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.53 · official $358.53 (match) · 1168 history records