Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ee2…517d crypto 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$425 (-10%) realized −$435 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%91W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$164
14 days+$164
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$613
sports 3% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +172.1% +146.2% 54% 46% +80.1%
≤30d 13 +172.1% +146.2% 54% 46% +80.1%
≤90d 172 +0.3% -9.2% 53% 44% -19.8%
all 172 +0.3% -9.2% 53% 44% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 44% -19.8%
10% -17.9% 28% -27.5%
15% -25.8% 22% -34.5%
20% -33.1% 15% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$435
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses91 / 81
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)172 / 176
History coverage80d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$27 +1308%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$25 +61%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$67 +649%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 07 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 07 $23 −$17 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 02 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 02 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 23 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 23 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 21 $56 −$26 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 21 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 19 $25 +$6 +24%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 19 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 19 $23 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 19 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 19 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 18 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 18 $43 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 18 $22 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 15 $23 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 15 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 15 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 07 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 07 $12 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 18m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 18m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $41 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 38h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 38h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 39h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 39h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 39h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 39h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $6 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $7 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.65 · official $59.65 (match) · 568 history records