Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4E 0x4ee2…46e1 crypto 269 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$244,749 (+260%) realized +$244,717 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%228W / 427L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day148.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,924now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25,296
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 477 +65.5% +49.7% 21% 20% -48.6%
≤30d 655 +60.5% +45.2% 35% 34% -26.8%
≤90d 655 +60.5% +45.2% 35% 34% -26.8%
all 655 +60.5% +45.2% 35% 34% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.2% 34% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here +31.3% 27% -33.8%
15% +18.6% 23% -40.2%
20% +7.0% 19% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +130% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$471 vs −$349 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$3,924
Realized+$244,717
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses228 / 427
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)655 / 269
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$350
Trades / day148.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? No 63¢ 56¢ $995 $892 −$103 (-10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? No 61¢ 56¢ $949 $878 −$71 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $381 $361 −$19 (-5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 30? No 79¢ 94¢ $237 $280 +$44 (+18%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 1? No 77¢ 88¢ $231 $266 +$34 (+15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 28? No 81¢ 96¢ $164 $195 +$31 (+19%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on July 1? Yes 77¢ 93¢ $161 $193 +$32 (+20%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 30? Yes 80¢ 95¢ $161 $191 +$31 (+19%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 67¢ 83¢ $139 $173 +$34 (+24%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 1? No 87¢ 97¢ $142 $158 +$16 (+11%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $128 $143 +$15 (+12%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $83 $91 +$7 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 27? No 88¢ 96¢ $28 $30 +$3 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 28? No 71¢ 90¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 27? Yes 25¢ 60¢ $8 $18 +$10 (+138%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Yes 65¢ 16¢ $28 $7 −$21 (-76%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 30? No 55¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 25? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $22 $4 −$18 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27? Yes 22¢ 43¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+91%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 2? Yes 10¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+140%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 2? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+133%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? No 60¢ 25¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 475 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 10? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5? Jun 26 $467 −$467 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 12? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 25? Jun 26 $413 −$325 -79%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Jun 26 $1,693 −$1,262 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 5 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 12? Jun 26 $925 −$885 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on March 17? Jun 26 $1,412 −$13,663 -968%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 7? Jun 26 $57 −$23 -41%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on April 7? Jun 26 $631 −$631 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 11 Jun 26 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 26? Jun 26 $467 −$467 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 19? Jun 26 $142 −$142 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 28? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 9? Jun 26 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 12? Jun 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 29? Jun 26 $61 +$3,853 +6281%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 13 Jun 26 $111 +$103 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 2? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on March 10? Jun 26 $121 −$121 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 27? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Jun 26 $202 −$194 -96%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on January 27? Jun 26 $67 −$57 -84%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 27? Jun 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 13? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on January 27? Jun 26 $315 −$56 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 12 Jun 26 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on January 29? Jun 26 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 24? Jun 26 $170 +$299 +176%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 7? Jun 26 $619 −$619 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 30? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on February 3? Jun 26 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 12? Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Solana reach $170 in January? Jun 26 $71 +$204 +288%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 2? Jun 26 $1,896 −$1,896 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 12? Jun 26 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on January 28? Jun 26 $76 −$50 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 11? Jun 26 $163 −$163 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 19? Jun 26 $420 −$420 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 13? Jun 26 $15 +$140 +920%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 13? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on February 24? Jun 26 $2 +$31 +1599%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? SELL No 45¢ $673 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL No 44¢ $668 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $629 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? SELL No 73¢ $1,572 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 59¢ $590 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 57¢ $259 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 57¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 58¢ $155 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 58¢ $135 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,923.57 · official $3,924.01 (match) · 3500 history records