Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ee5…e514 sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-14%) realized −$47 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%44W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$40
14 days−$46
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$30
other 16% −$11
crypto 1% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 36% -38.0%
≤30d 108 +6.7% -3.4% 41% 40% -27.7%
≤90d 108 +6.7% -3.4% 41% 40% -27.7%
all 108 +6.7% -3.4% 41% 40% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 40% -27.7%
10% -12.7% 38% -34.6%
15% -21.1% 38% -41.0%
20% -28.8% 35% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses44 / 64
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 58¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 +$5 +510%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$2 +40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 +$2 +21%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 +$8 +786%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +134%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 +$1 +67%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 +$1 +97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$3 +307%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$3 +62%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +114%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 +$2 +188%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$2 +62%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $100 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $28 14h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes $1 14h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $8 14h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 38h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 38h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.63 · official $101.33 · 167 history records