Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ee8…76be weather 336 markets active 3h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$244 (+1%) realized +$235 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%306W / 24L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$4
14 days−$130
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$168
other 5% +$14
tech 3% +$12
culture 3% +$49
world 3% −$6
politics 0% +$10
sports 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -5.3% -14.3% 93% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 293 +6.6% -3.6% 94% 7% -8.7%
all 330 +5.6% -4.5% 93% 8% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 8% -8.6%
10% -13.6% 5% -17.3%
15% -22.0% 2% -25.3%
20% -29.6% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$24 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$235
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses306 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)330 / 336
History coverage152d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? No 94¢ 100¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $46 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $68 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 +$1 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $66 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $68 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $77 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 09 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 09 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $87 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $89 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $69 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $38 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $66 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $48 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $38 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $58 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $68 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $69 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $59 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $69 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $68 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $69 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $47 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.20 · official $348.20 (match) · 1067 history records