trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -12.0% | -20.3% | 10% | 10% | +36.2% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +27.5% | +15.3% | 44% | 44% | +45.1% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +22.6% | +11.0% | 45% | 45% | +39.2% |
| all | 20 | +22.6% | +11.0% | 45% | 45% | +39.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +11.0% | 45% | +39.2% |
| 10% | +0.3% | 45% | +25.8% |
| 15% | -9.4% | 45% | +13.7% |
| 20% | -18.2% | 40% | +2.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-14%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 9¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+50%) |
| Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-31%) |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 7¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-56%) |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 29¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+87%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 15 | $3 | −$2 | -82% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | -45% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$13 | +700% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$2 | -200% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -75% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 05 | $1 | +$2 | +230% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | May 28 | $1 | +$1 | +67% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | May 28 | $4 | +$2 | +58% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $1 | +$1 | +62% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 23 | $1 | +$1 | +114% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $2 | +$1 | +56% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | May 20 | $1 | $0 | -40% |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 in May? | May 18 | $2 | +$1 | +67% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | May 16 | $2 | +$1 | +38% |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -80% |