Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4ef3…7bd0 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,468 (+36%) realized +$1,353 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$924now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 51% +$177
other 49% +$1,369
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 50% +67.0%
≤90d 9 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 44% +23.2%
all 10 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% +31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 50% +31.0%
10% -17.5% 50% +18.5%
15% -25.4% 50% +7.0%
20% -32.8% 50% -3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$438 vs −$152 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$924
Realized+$1,353
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage112d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $809 $924 +$115 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $464 +$423 +91%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $960 +$895 +93%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 27 $56 −$43 -77%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $119 +$140 +118%
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? Apr 17 $297 +$257 +87%
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? Apr 17 $25 −$25 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Apr 17 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $171 −$152 -89%
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? Mar 05 $558 +$477 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $101 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $47 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $194 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $33 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $924.37 · official $924.37 (match) · 120 history records