Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4ef3…eb09 crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-12%) realized −$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.7% -24.7% 45% 36% -20.6%
≤30d 11 -16.7% -24.7% 45% 36% -20.6%
≤90d 11 -16.7% -24.7% 45% 36% -20.6%
all 11 -16.7% -24.7% 45% 36% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 36% -20.6%
10% -31.9% 36% -28.2%
15% -38.4% 36% -35.1%
20% -44.5% 9% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$104 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $412 +$174 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$189 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records