Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4ef6…20dc world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,662 (+72%) realized +$1,662 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$1,657
other 4% −$6
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 1 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤90d 5 +18.2% +6.9% 40% 40% +55.1%
all 5 +18.2% +6.9% 40% 40% +55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 40% +55.1%
10% -3.3% 40% +40.2%
15% -12.7% 40% +26.7%
20% -21.2% 20% +14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,235 vs −$271 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,662
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage75d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $1,099 −$801 -73%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026 Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1,100 +$2,465 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $96 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $299 74d
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1,099 74d
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026 BUY No 5¢ $7 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 98¢ $3,565 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,100 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records