Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4E 0x4ef8…74ce other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$2
crypto 15% −$3
tech 14% −$1
economics 14% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 25 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage256d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 2? Nov 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 19 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 19 $715 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 19 $717 −$3 -0%
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025? Oct 19 $721 −$3 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 19 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Rast win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 16 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 14? Oct 14 $17 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 13d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 16d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 24d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 27d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 31d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 34d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 38d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 40d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 47d
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 236d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 248d
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? SELL No 100¢ $713 250d
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $714 250d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $714 250d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $715 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.73 · official $105.73 (match) · 60 history records