Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4efc…dd07 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,106 (-41%) realized −$3,013 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days−$96
14 days−$361
30 days−$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$3,497
sports 4% +$412
crypto 4% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +41.0% +27.6% 47% 41% -11.5%
≤30d 46 -9.5% -18.1% 30% 26% -37.6%
≤90d 71 -34.3% -40.5% 24% 20% -50.6%
all 71 -34.3% -40.5% 24% 20% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 20% -50.6%
10% -46.2% 20% -55.3%
15% -51.4% 15% -59.6%
20% -56.2% 14% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$81 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized−$3,013
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 54
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage55d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $203 $203 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $234 $169 −$65 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $60 $39 −$21 (-35%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 5¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $316 −$169 -54%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 +$172 +337%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$11 -22%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $51 +$323 +629%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$9 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $33 +$42 +127%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $53 +$18 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $200 +$126 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $445 −$424 -95%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 −$26 -26%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $537 −$31 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $31 +$10 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $61 −$57 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $65 +$52 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $317 −$307 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $132 +$7 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $73 −$17 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $59 −$57 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $39 +$58 +149%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $24 +$14 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $17 +$56 +325%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $56 −$34 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $35 −$29 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $63 +$128 +203%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $46 −$44 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $226 −$221 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $161 −$160 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $162 −$133 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 26 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $21 −$18 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $132 −$101 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $115 −$38 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $301 −$153 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $110 −$90 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $82 −$76 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $13 −$10 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $139 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $181 −$179 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $80 +$33 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $31 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $108 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $24 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $21 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 11h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $51 18h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $31 21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 41h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.53 · official $494.53 (match) · 467 history records