Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4E 0x4efc…0d69 crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,289 (-11%) realized −$1,289 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%45W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,550
sports 2% −$30
other 1% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +26.1% +14.1% 43% 43% +6.1%
≤30d 7 +26.1% +14.1% 43% 43% +6.1%
≤90d 100 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 41% -20.9%
all 100 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 41% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 41% -20.9%
10% -34.8% 38% -28.5%
15% -41.1% 32% -35.4%
20% -46.9% 30% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$101 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses45 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage57d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$6 +22%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $10 −$6 -54%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$97 +190%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $8 +$27 +324%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +35%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin May 03 $39 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs Alzon (BO3) - CCT South America Seri May 03 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Infinite (BO3) - Esplay Elite Gaming May 02 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs MANA eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Close May 02 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe May 02 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $10 +$3 +35%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season May 02 $21 +$5 +24%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 02 $15 −$10 -65%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Grou May 02 $47 −$10 -21%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season May 02 $10 +$9 +93%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $30 +$9 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $22 +$8 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $5 +$11 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 27 $189 −$182 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 27 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 27 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$97 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 27 $110 −$104 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 27 $280 −$271 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 27 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 27 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$99 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 27 $20 +$22 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$113 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 27 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$97 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 27 $140 −$134 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 27 $130 −$123 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 27 $40 −$37 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 27 $372 −$360 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 27 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 SELL Pixel Lumina 12¢ $5 1h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY Pixel Lumina 25¢ $10 2h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $148 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $51 3h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 37d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Tundra Esports 56¢ $10 37d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin BUY Xtreme Gaming 81¢ $29 50d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin BUY Xtreme Gaming 80¢ $10 50d
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Infinite (BO3) - Esplay Elite Gaming SELL Infinite 100¢ $7 51d
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Infinite (BO3) - Esplay Elite Gaming BUY Infinite 74¢ $5 51d
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs Alzon (BO3) - CCT South America Seri BUY BESTIA Academy 64¢ $5 51d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY GamerLegion 6¢ $1 51d
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs MANA eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Close SELL INOX Division 100¢ $15 51d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe SELL SPARTA 69¢ $5 51d
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs MANA eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Close BUY INOX Division 65¢ $10 51d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe BUY SPARTA 62¢ $5 51d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs SELL Natus Vincere 90¢ $14 51d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $10 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records