Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4efc…2d8d
sports · 127 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$313 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$367 · open −$54
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$193
Realized+$367
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses61 / 61
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions5
Markets (closed)122 / 127
History coverage18d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day186.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 5 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days+$296
14 days+$253
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $153 $151 −$2 (-1%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 48¢ 14¢ $71 $20 −$51 (-72%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 51¢ 52¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 40¢ 19¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $4 +$4 +93%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $45 +$100 +223%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$14 +94%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $136 −$136 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $131 −$94 -72%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $14 +$8 +56%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 10 $9 +$14 +152%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $38 +$19 +50%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 +$1 +73%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $11 +$8 +76%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $159 −$159 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +36%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 +$5 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 08 $2 +$1 +46%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $318 +$317 +100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $24 +$26 +108%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $3 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 +$40 +78%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $105 +$39 +37%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 +$2 +46%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $3 +$2 +53%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $34 +$25 +73%
Map Handicap: FS (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 07 $2 +$1 +42%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $87 +$117 +134%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 +$7 +114%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $23 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$610
crypto 12% −$178
other 10% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 57% +8.2%
≤30d 122 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 49% -3.5%
≤90d 122 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 49% -3.5%
all 122 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 49% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover186.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 49% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 46% -12.7%
15% -24.2% 43% -21.1%
20% -31.6% 34% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.92 · official $192.92 (match) · 3500 history records