Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4E 0x4efe…d987 sports 62 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$765 (+9%) realized +$765 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%29W / 30L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$498
other 4% +$356
crypto 4% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +7.9% -2.4% 49% 47% -1.5%
≤30d 59 +7.9% -2.4% 49% 47% -1.5%
≤90d 59 +7.9% -2.4% 49% 47% -1.5%
all 59 +7.9% -2.4% 49% 47% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 47% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 42% -10.9%
15% -20.2% 39% -19.5%
20% -28.1% 32% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$95 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$765
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage3d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Jovic/Kessler Jun 13 $286 −$63 -22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 −$17 -6%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $102 +$334 +327%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $187 −$185 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Modena (Doubles): Gorgodze/Karamoko vs Cavalle-Reimers/Salden Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $101 +$28 +27%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $304 +$188 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $402 +$60 +15%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $155 −$153 -99%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $406 −$400 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $103 +$455 +443%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $246 −$238 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $465 +$676 +145%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $56 +$156 +280%
Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $204 +$414 +203%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Los Angeles: Lily Taylor vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 12 $193 +$199 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $126 +$68 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $152 −$26 -17%
ITF Los Angeles: Spencer Johnson vs Nathan Trouve Jun 12 $50 −$4 -9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $72 −$71 -98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $126 +$94 +74%
ITF Los Angeles: Kristina Penickova vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $277 +$131 +48%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $474 +$20 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $51 +$41 +81%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $88 +$44 +50%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$5 -10%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Ben Shelton vs. Marcos Giron: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $35 +$6 +17%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $103 +$43 +42%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $61 +$29 +48%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$20 +65%
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN Leagu Jun 12 $44 +$46 +105%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $91 +$44 +49%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Netherlands BUY $3 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY 44¢ $221 4d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Jovic/Kessler SELL Fernandez/Siegemund 50¢ $223 4d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Jovic/Kessler BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 62¢ $286 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $286 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Côt BUY $132 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY 48¢ $305 5d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer SELL David Jorda Sanchis 99¢ $436 5d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 76¢ $187 5d
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Federico Cina 60¢ $101 5d
Modena (Doubles): Gorgodze/Karamoko vs Cavalle-Reimers/Salden BUY Gorgodze/Karamoko 55¢ $203 5d
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Federico Cina 57¢ $203 5d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY David Jorda Sanchis 23¢ $102 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $305 5d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $155 5d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY F5 Esports 48¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY F5 Esports 48¢ $203 5d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY F5 Esports 45¢ $102 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 84¢ $557 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $60 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 5d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 78¢ $101 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 15¢ $103 5d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records