Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f02…823d sports 337 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$662 (-11%) realized −$609 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%89W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days−$235
14 days−$330
30 days−$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$707
sports 37% +$170
other 8% −$63
crypto 1% −$55
politics 1% −$9
weather 1% −$7
tech 0% −$27
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +14.8% +3.9% 38% 38% -15.9%
≤30d 265 -2.9% -12.1% 34% 34% -19.8%
≤90d 265 -2.9% -12.1% 34% 34% -19.8%
all 266 -3.2% -12.4% 33% 33% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 33% -21.0%
10% -20.8% 33% -28.6%
15% -28.4% 33% -35.5%
20% -35.4% 33% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$888
Realized−$609
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses89 / 177
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions69
Markets (closed)266 / 337
History coverage151d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $59 $65 +$6 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 26¢ 31¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+21%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $26 +$9 (+51%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $5 $15 +$10 (+195%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 45¢ 47¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 53¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $1,600 −$64 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$35 +1142%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 14 $900 −$219 -24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$15 +152%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$26 +172%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$17 +414%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $15 +$8 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $25 −$13 -51%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 +$20 +197%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 10 $20 −$10 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $100 10m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon $2 12m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $5 6h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $5 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $10 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 6h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 16h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 16h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $20 16h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $20 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva $2 18h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 20¢ $5 18h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Peter Buldorini 13¢ $5 18h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 14¢ $5 18h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 24¢ $5 18h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Samuel Linde 13¢ $5 18h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 14¢ $5 18h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 17¢ $5 18h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Lorenzo Giustino 15¢ $5 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $565 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 18h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $38 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $888.39 · official $893.43 (match) · 567 history records