Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f06…8ebe crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$82 (-8%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$50
other 9% −$18
weather 3% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.9% -23.0% 61% 50% -8.9%
≤30d 18 -14.9% -23.0% 61% 50% -8.9%
≤90d 18 -14.9% -23.0% 61% 50% -8.9%
all 18 -14.9% -23.0% 61% 50% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 50% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 33% -17.6%
15% -37.1% 22% -25.6%
20% -43.2% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$32 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$71 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$71 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$30 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $47 +$28 +59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $32 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $138 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $114 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $129 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $57 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $45 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $47 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $99.21 · 35 history records