Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f07…9036 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+6%) realized −$42 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$75
finance 16% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +30.0%
≤30d 2 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +30.0%
≤90d 3 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 67% -2.3%
all 3 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 67% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 67% -2.3%
10% -21.7% 67% -11.6%
15% -29.2% 33% -20.2%
20% -36.2% 33% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage89d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 40¢ 94¢ $30 $71 +$41 (+136%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$19 +63%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.75 · official $93.75 (match) · 7 history records