Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f07…d6d5 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%6W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$3
politics 18% −$1
sports 7% −$45
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -7.6% -16.4% 6% 3% -10.6%
all 101 -7.6% -16.4% 6% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 3% -10.6%
10% -24.4% 3% -19.1%
15% -31.7% 3% -26.9%
20% -38.4% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses6 / 95
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage90d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $102 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $117 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $78 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $101 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $89 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $169 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $26 5h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 20d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 27d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $36 28d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $36 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.22 · official $33.22 (match) · 266 history records