Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f07…8aef world 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,509 (-1%) realized −$3,485 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate58%63W / 45L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,042per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$990now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,405
7 days−$519
14 days−$519
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$1,418
sports 3% −$4,501
finance 2% +$161
politics 0% −$361
crypto 0% −$21
other 0% +$4
tech 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.4% -20.7% 55% 27% -11.9%
≤30d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 22% -9.2%
≤90d 87 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 17% -13.0%
all 108 -5.6% -14.6% 58% 16% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 16% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 11% -18.9%
15% -30.2% 6% -26.8%
20% -37.1% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$2,805) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$280 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$990
Realized−$3,485
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses63 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions11
Markets (closed)108 / 119
History coverage145d
Avg bet$3,042
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $660 $664 +$4 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $44 $60 +$16 (+37%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 40¢ 55¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+38%)
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $57 $26 −$31 (-54%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 30¢ 8¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-75%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $2,430 −$1,230 -51%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $3,565 −$240 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $408 +$66 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $194 −$95 -49%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$19 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7,213 +$517 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,800 +$65 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $25 +$27 +108%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $760 +$201 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $2,063 +$193 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $1,440 +$15 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? May 31 $700 +$40 +6%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2,040 +$153 +8%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $18 +$82 +456%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $60 +$4 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,780 +$232 +13%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $295 −$106 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $1,375 −$30 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $10,060 +$266 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 21 $99 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2,248 −$220 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 16 $1,706 −$79 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 13 $1,978 +$132 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $522 −$129 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $9 −$7 -78%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 25 $904 −$5 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $243 −$3 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 21 $500 +$51 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $20 +$32 +160%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $900 +$56 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 18 $195 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $265 −$72 -27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 17 $183 +$34 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $975 −$105 -11%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $285 −$129 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $939 −$41 -4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $28 −$25 -89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $122 +$49 +40%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 16 $78 +$27 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 16 $49 −$8 -16%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $50 +$52 +104%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $152 +$40 +26%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 14 $195 +$5 +3%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 14 $10 −$6 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $48 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,896 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $95 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $1,032 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,640 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 14¢ $7 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 13¢ $6 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 13¢ $1 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $162 27h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 78¢ $102 43h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 78¢ $78 43h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 43h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 43h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 78¢ $267 43h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 74¢ $241 43h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 74¢ $131 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $58 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $151 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $989.53 · official $988.48 (match) · 1192 history records