Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f08…7647 crypto 709 markets active 4d ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (187 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,074 (+7%) realized +$4,074 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate62%519W / 314L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day187.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$320
other 1% +$10
sports 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (187 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -33.9% -40.2% 41% 22% -36.4%
≤30d 833 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 32% -17.0%
≤90d 833 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 32% -17.0%
all 833 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 32% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover187.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 32% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 21% -24.9%
15% -33.0% 15% -32.2%
20% -39.6% 10% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$41 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,074
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses519 / 314
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)833 / 709
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day187.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 833 Trades
no open positions (185 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records