Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4F 0x4f08…ead2 other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$356 (+23%) realized +$323 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt +89% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$36
14 days−$2
30 days+$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$442
sports 27% −$38
politics 16% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+71.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.2% -5.7% 43% 43% -18.4%
≤30d 11 +119.2% +98.3% 55% 55% +61.9%
≤90d 11 +119.2% +98.3% 55% 55% +61.9%
all 21 +89.4% +71.4% 62% 62% +44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.4% 62% +44.8%
10% +55.0% 57% +30.9%
15% +40.0% 52% +18.3%
20% +26.3% 43% +6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +89% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +119% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$55 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized+$323
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)21 / 31
History coverage135d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $163 $237 +$74 (+45%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $84 $59 −$24 (-29%)
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $56 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Zizou Bergs 57¢ 57¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $39 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $8 $21 +$14 (+180%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $135 −$134 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $63 −$42 -67%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $72 +$28 +40%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 +$52 +108%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $6 +$4 +61%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $34 +$30 +87%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $154 +$370 +240%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 09 $240 −$235 -98%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Feb 28 $5 −$3 -50%
Drake Bulldogs vs. Valparaiso Beacons Feb 26 $13 +$7 +49%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 22 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Nebraska win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 22 $5 +$9 +169%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 22 $5 +$12 +221%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 16 $2 +$7 +280%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $10 7m
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $26 1h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 57¢ $58 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 12h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 67¢ $135 12h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 16h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 19h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 71¢ $72 27h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $2 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $2 3d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $4 3d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $4 3d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $4 3d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $26 3d
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $5 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 12¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $648.01 · official $648.01 (match) · 170 history records