Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f0d…bb59 crypto 41 markets active 2d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-6%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -66.9% -70.0% 0% 0% -56.2%
≤30d 11 -66.9% -70.0% 0% 0% -56.2%
≤90d 41 -26.8% -33.8% 39% 24% -25.6%
all 41 -26.8% -33.8% 39% 24% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 24% -25.6%
10% -40.1% 20% -32.7%
15% -45.9% 17% -39.2%
20% -51.2% 17% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 02 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 02 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 02 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 02 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 02 $8 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 02 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 02 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 02 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 02 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 02 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 02 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 02 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 02 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 02 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 01 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 01 $3 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 01 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 01 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 01 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 01 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 01 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 01 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records