Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f11…53b0 weather 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$183 (-5%) realized −$589 · open +$406
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$204
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -39.1% -44.9% 38% 23% -16.8%
≤30d 13 -39.1% -44.9% 38% 23% -16.8%
≤90d 13 -39.1% -44.9% 38% 23% -16.8%
all 13 -39.1% -44.9% 38% 23% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.9% 23% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -50.2% 8% -24.8%
15% -55.0% 8% -32.0%
20% -59.4% 8% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$51 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,717
Realized−$589
Unrealized+$406
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? No 72¢ 100¢ $966 $1,343 +$377 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? No 92¢ 100¢ $326 $352 +$27 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? No 19¢ 22¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $250 −$188 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $147 −$138 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,036 +$48 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $96 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $299 +$32 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $656 +$111 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$18 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 19¢ $17 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 19¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $105 29m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $136 29m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $87 29m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 66¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 63¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 64¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 63¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 64¢ $6 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,716.71 · official $1,716.71 (match) · 104 history records