trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -53.7% | -58.1% | 27% | 27% | -63.6% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -20.5% | -28.1% | 31% | 31% | -15.8% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +67.6% | +51.6% | 42% | 42% | +17.8% |
| all | 19 | +67.6% | +51.6% | 42% | 42% | +17.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +51.6% | 42% | +17.8% |
| 10% | +37.1% | 37% | +6.5% |
| 15% | +23.9% | 37% | -3.8% |
| 20% | +11.7% | 32% | -13.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 7¢ | 17¢ | $21 | $53 | +$32 (+155%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 12¢ | $35 | $43 | +$9 (+25%) |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 21¢ | $20 | $22 | +$2 (+11%) |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 7¢ | 5¢ | $29 | $22 | −$8 (-26%) |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 4¢ | 9¢ | $5 | $12 | +$7 (+130%) |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 11¢ | $20 | $11 | −$9 (-46%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 34¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+12%) |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $3 | $2 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will OpenAI raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? | Yes | 11¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-82%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 16 | $65 | −$65 | -100% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $19 | +$9 | +50% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 13 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on | Jun 12 | $43 | −$43 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | Jun 12 | $25 | +$13 | +50% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$9 | -91% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $25 | +$4 | +17% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $25 | −$4 | -17% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $21 | +$44 | +212% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-09? | Jun 09 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | Jun 01 | $51 | +$180 | +351% |
| World Championships: Canada vs. Finland | May 30 | $11 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | May 26 | $50 | −$49 | -98% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $5 | +$61 | +1174% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $50 | +$40 | +79% |
| Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $25 | +$88 | +358% |