Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f12…9d46 weather 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%126W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$13
politics 1% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 66 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 114 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 132 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×96.13 per $1 lost it wins $96.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses126 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage128d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $141 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 29 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 28? Jun 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 28? Jun 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 26 Jun 27 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? Jun 26 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? Jun 25 $234 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $234 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $232 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $232 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $231 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 8? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $72 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on June 6? Jun 07 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 6 Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $181 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $141 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $97 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $142 15h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $40 17h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $56 17h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $235 30h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 26 BUY No 100¢ $230 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $235 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $233 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $234 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $231 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $136 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $99 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $234 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $232 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $232 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $38 13d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $125 14d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $61 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 14d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $125 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $80 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $231 16d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $121 17d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $230 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $230 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.53 · official $237.53 (match) · 269 history records